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The best way we can explain it is to draw your attention to the chart below. The world’s largest economy, and the main engine of global growth, the United States continues to improve, pointing to an ongoing expansion continuing.
Credit conditions remain loose and leading indicators are trending firmly higher.
Housing starts are growing rapidly (22% Y-o-Y); house prices are rising and existing home sales have picked up in recent months. The financing gap, for example, suggests that companies are still cash flow rich while (non-financial) company profits bounced back sharply in Q2.
Credit growth, for example, continues to gather pace, with the credit cycle therefore adding momentum to the economic cycle. In addition, employment in both July and August was revised upward.As we have entered October, a stock market correction is occurring and investors are asking the question – has the bull market conditions of the last several years ended?There is no doubt we are at an inflection point, as it appears the days of ultra-loose monetary policy from the US Federal reserve are numbered.In our most recent economic update in April 2014, we made the argument that the US economy was strengthening, and that the biggest issue on the horizon was the US Fed’s exit from QE and the normalisation of interest rates.We believe this view has been vindicated by economic data over the past 6 months.